Senegal’s home fuel reserves shall be mainly used to supply electrical energy. Authorities count on that domestic fuel infrastructure tasks will come online between 2025 and 2026, offered there is not a delay. The monetization of those vital vitality resources is at the foundation of the government’s new gas-to-power ambitions.
In this context, the global expertise group Wärtsilä conducted in-depth research that analyse the financial influence of the varied gas-to-power strategies obtainable to Senegal. Two very completely different applied sciences are competing to meet the country’s gas-to-power ambitions: Combined-cycle gasoline turbines (CCGT) and Gas engines (ICE).
These research have revealed very important system price variations between the two major gas-to-power applied sciences the country is presently considering. Contrary to prevailing beliefs, gas engines are actually significantly better suited than combined cycle gas turbines to harness power from Senegal’s new gasoline resources cost-effectively, the research reveals. Total cost differences between the 2 applied sciences could reach as much as 480 million USD till 2035 relying on scenarios.
Two competing and very totally different applied sciences
The state-of-the-art vitality mix models developed by Wärtsilä, which builds customised energy scenarios to determine the fee optimal approach to ship new technology capacity for a particular nation, reveals that ICE and CCGT technologies present vital price variations for the gas-to-power newbuild program operating to 2035.
Although these two technologies are equally confirmed and reliable, they are very completely different when it comes to the profiles by which they’ll function. CCGT is a know-how that has been developed for the interconnected European electricity markets, where it can function at 90% load factor at all times. On the opposite hand, flexible ICE expertise can function effectively in all working profiles, and seamlessly adapt itself to some other era technologies that will make up the country’s power mix.
In explicit our examine reveals that when operating in an electrical energy network of limited size corresponding to Senegal’s 1GW nationwide grid, counting on CCGTs to significantly increase the community capacity would be extremely pricey in all possible scenarios.
Cost differences between the applied sciences are defined by a quantity of components. First of all, scorching climates negatively impact the output of gasoline generators more than it does that of gas engines.
Secondly, thanks to Senegal’s anticipated access to cheap home gasoline, the working costs become much less impactful than the investment prices. In other phrases, as a result of low gas costs lower operating prices, it is financially sound for the country to depend on ICE power vegetation, that are cheaper to construct.
Technology modularity additionally plays a key function. Senegal is predicted to require an extra 60-80 MW of era capacity each year to have the flexibility to meet the increasing demand. This is way lower than the capacity of typical CCGTs crops which averages 300-400 MW that have to be built in one go, resulting in unnecessary expenditure. Engine power crops, on the other hand, are modular, which implies they can be constructed exactly as and when the country wants them, and additional extended when required.
เครื่องมือความดัน at play are significant. The mannequin shows that If Senegal chooses to favour CCGT crops at the expense of ICE-gas, it’s going to result in as a lot as 240 million dollars of extra price for the system by 2035. The value difference between the technologies can even improve to 350 million USD in favor of ICE know-how if Senegal also chooses to build new renewable energy capacity within the subsequent decade.
Risk-managing pressure gauge ราคา ถูก delays
The growth of fuel infrastructure is a posh and prolonged endeavour. Program delays are not unusual, inflicting fuel provide disruptions that will have a huge monetary influence on the operation of CCGT vegetation.
Nigeria knows one thing about that. Only last year, vital gasoline provide issues have triggered shutdowns at a few of the country’s largest fuel turbine power vegetation. Because Gas turbines function on a continuous combustion process, they require a constant provide of fuel and a stable dispatched load to generate constant power output. If the supply is disrupted, shutdowns happen, placing an excellent pressure on the overall system. ICE-Gas vegetation then again, are designed to regulate their operational profile over time and improve system flexibility. Because of their versatile working profile, they have been in a place to keep a a lot greater stage of availability
The research took a deep dive to analyse the monetary influence of 2 years delay within the fuel infrastructure program. It demonstrates that if the country decides to speculate into fuel engines, the value of gasoline delay could be 550 million dollars, whereas a system dominated by CCGTs would result in a staggering 770 million dollars in extra value.
Whichever method you have a glance at it, new ICE-Gas technology capacity will minimize the entire cost of electrical energy in Senegal in all potential scenarios. If Senegal is to fulfill electricity demand progress in a cost-optimal way, no much less than 300 MW of recent ICE-Gas capacity will be required by 2026.
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